Ok, we all know 2013 Search ranking factors now includes audience and human activity right?
And we all know Social Media plays a big part in triggering these audience and human activity signals with Shares, Likes and Re-tweets.
Now can these audience and human activity signals indicate much more than just a triggered algorithm alert for the Search Engines?
Can these Social signals be an indicator of what the future outcome maybe?
For example, we can safely assume behind every search query spike created by social signals, there is popularity behind this outcome, and maybe this outcome indicates a bit more than just the rise and decline of search activity.
Maybe these audience and human activity signals could be consider as direct impact or indicator of the outcome that is to come.
In order to test this theory, we will review the social media presence and monitor the audience and human activity signals generated by from the 2013 Los Angels Mayoral Elections and its candidates.
Lets get started by taking a look at our 2013 Los Angeles mayoral candidate’s social profiles.
Wendy Greuel’s clearly leads the pack with 12k+ Facebook Likes and 1,600+ Interactions. Lets focus our attention to this ‘Interactions’ numbers since we all know total numbers of Likes or Followers aren’t always reflective of the number of real people who follow an account.
So, what is the ‘Interaction’ (or People Are Talking About This) number?
Greg Finn, best explained this in his post “Demystifying Facebook’s “People Are Talking About This” Metric” over at Search Engine Land.
And, why is this ‘Interaction’ number so important?
Because, this number provides a glance at whether this Page is active and engaging based on the number of people talking about it.
These 1,600+ Interactions shows insight into Wendy Greuel’s followers and her ability to engage with her voters directly and/or reach out to those who normally will not be interested.
Now lets not jump to conclusion. Just because Wendy Greuel has the most ‘Interactions’ on Facebook, it doesn’t mean it is making a positive impact on rest of the media channels.
For example, this nifty little tool called Social Mention By Jon Cianciullo, can measure our candidates social activity over various media outlets and provide a tangible data of the candidates Reach with their audience, how Passionate their advocates feels when it comes to their favorite candidate.
Lets take a look at the Social Mention Graph:
This Social Mention graph shows even with Wendy Greuel’s stronger Social presence she is making less impact with the public audience. However, all her competitors across the board show to have stronger impact with their audiences.
Lets take a look at our candidates Twitter activities.
Courtesy of Topsy, another nifty Social Search & Analytic Tool from Fund and Scott Banister which allows us to monitor Twitter activities of our candidates.
Again, Wendy Greuel leading the way with the most Twitter Followers at 5,330 but falls short when it comes to ‘Public Tweets Past 30 Days’.
However, Kevin James’s (mayoral candidate, not actor) Twitter activities shows his name/brand has been tweeted the most over the course of last 30 days but had little or any real life impact in terms of his ballet count.
So what have we learn so far from monitoring the audience and human social buzz created by our 2013 Los Angles Mayoral Candidates.
First, the total amount of followers or fans doesn’t hold any direct correlation to how many votes a candidate gets.
Second, the social activities created by the public surrounding each candidate are not an indicator of who is more popular in the eyes of the public when the voting starts.
So, why do the politicians continue to use Social Media more and more to promote their campaigns?
Current 2013 Los Angeles race results (updated: 3/7/13)
(Image Source: http://www.nbclosangeles.com/)
Down to last two runners, Eric Garcetti and Wendy Greuel, separated by just 4%.
Will the candidate with the strongest Social presence Wendy Greuel win OR the candidate with the most passionate followers Eric Garcetti makes the cut?
Social Media SMACKDOWN Prediction
We boldly predict that Wendy Greuel with the largest Social Media presence wins the 2013 Los Angeles Mayor Election and become the FIRST FEMALE Mayor of Los Angeles in 2013!!